Borotba predicted it all

Not everyone can look today at tomorrow.  

Precisely, not only that not everyone but in fact  just  a few people can do it. 

  -  Vitali Klitschko, mayor of Kiev

"A politician must be able to predict what will happen tomorrow, next week, next month and next year. And then explain why it did not happen,” Winston Churchill supposedly said. Borotba does not have to explain why it is that what we predicted did not happen. All of it, unfortunately, has happened in Ukraine. And if the small details and events differ from our estimates, the overall outline was predicted by us with the greatest possible precision.

So in 2012, when the first fraction of the far-right party Svoboda entered parliament supported by a number of oligarchic groups, including some close to President Yanukovych, Borotba was the first and the only political force which then predicted that, with the development of the socio-economic crisis, the oligarchy would put ultra-right ideology and organization at its service. It was at that time when we published the report, “Ukrainian oligarchy is preparing a ‘creeping’ fascist coup.”

The coup turned out not to be "creeping" but "leaping", with cries of "whoever does not jump is with Moscow". With oligarchic policy-makers and radical nationalists acting as a striking force, we predicted accurately. It should be noted that while our report was ignored, many thoughtlessly dismissed the prospects of a nationalist turn in Ukrainian politics.

The only mistake our report made was the idea that the main political force of the rightist coup would be ‘Svoboda’ party. We had not considered the fact that liberal politicians actually would embrace the nationalist agenda and would give rise to a powerful competitor to Svoboda inside the right-wing radical camp, known as the Right Sector – a coalition of neo-Nazi groups.

But the very fact of the emergence of militant groups such as Right Sector we effectively predicted: "Under the guise of security agencies, the oligarchic groups will use their money to form nationalist militias which in the future will form the engine of a fascist coup. These units will carry out attacks against the left and anti-nationalist forces and use their weapons to implement terror against individual politicians and social activists. "

It was in 2012 when we accurately predicted that the nationalist “revolution” would lead the country to a split and decay: "Since the power of ethnocratic Ukrainian nationalists would inevitably lead to the growth of separatist movements in the South-East of the country, as well as in Transcarpathia, the establishment of a dictatorship of the fascist type will be supported by the international players who are interested in the decay and destruction of Ukrainian statehood."

At that time, such a prediction seemed a fantasy to many. Today, few can doubt its accuracy. Moreover, because persecution and open terror against political opponents is a hallmark of fascist dictatorships, we wrote in the report: "Left-wing political organizations and social organizations opposing nationalism, chauvinism and xenophobia will be banned. Criminal cases will be opened against their leaders. Along with the prosecution under the law, there will be also attacks carried out by the radical nationalists on activists of the left and progressive movements, ethnic and linguistic minorities."  Today, although the outright ban on opposition activity still does not exist, we see prosecution and military pressure on opposition forces, and government authorities are repressing political parties accused of "separatism."

It should be noted also that Borotba became the first political force, in December 2012 in Kiev, that held a mass rally against the participation of the ideological descendants of Nazism in the parliament under the slogan, "Down with the oligarchs and nationalists." At that time, many of today's armchair fighters against nationalism had even no thought of joining street protests against the nationalist turn in policy.

The next important and realized prediction of Borotba was the outcome of the EuroMaidan movement. While many, including on the left, still admired Maidan as a mass democratic movement, we had already warned that the only result of its victory would be the coming to power of the ultra-nationalist forces, which would rule in the interests of the oligarchy. The process developed even more dramatically than we expected -- EuroMaidan gave direct authority  over key regions to the billionaires Kolomoyskiy and Taruta, and oligarch Poroshenko was elected as the President.

We also clearly saw that the process unleashed by EuroMaidan would lead the country to split and civil war. That’s why, at the end of 2013 in Kiev, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov, Borotba activists held rallies against civil war. Many considered the prospect of civil war impossible – they considered us alarmists, intimidating people with a non-existent threat. But, unfortunately, this prediction of Borotba came true. Today, the bombs of the Kiev junta’s army fall on Lugansk, Donetsk, and Slavyansk.

Events in Ukraine have confirmed the relevance of Marxist analysis of development. Unfortunately, this analysis was almost always pessimistic. But it was our duty to warn people of the impending danger, and we are not to blame that the worst has come true. We tried to do everything we could to stop the oligarchs and the Nazis.

Victor Shapinov

Liva

Translation by Greg Butterfield

09.06.2014